Social retrospection: conversation networks, performance evaluations, and candidate support
Brett Bessen. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 2026.
Abstract
Voters’ ability to assess the performance of elected leaders is central to theories of democratic accountability. I extend theories of retrospective voting by considering the influence of political discussion. Using a panel survey of Brazilian respondents, I examine the relationship between political disagreement in voters’ conversation networks and changes in candidate support across party lines during President Lula da Silva’s first term. I find that Brazilians with more disagreeing conversation partners are substantially more likely to update their views and support different candidates going into the next election. Further, I find suggestive evidence that network disagreement reduces support for Lula by producing more negative evaluations of his performance. The results indicate that conversation networks play a significant but underappreciated role in retrospective evaluations of elected leaders.